House begins defense policy debate $45 billion behind the Senate | #macos | #macsecurity | #hacking | #aihp

THE CHAIRMAN’S MARK: House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) has released his “Chairman’s Mark” of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, which the full committee will begin marking up tomorrow. Smith’s version is basically a starting point, and it closely resembles the Biden administration’s proposed budget for the Pentagon, most notably for its absence of any plus-up in spending to account for inflation or to boost acquisition of weapons such as the F-35 joint strike fighter.

While the House panel is just starting work, its Senate counterpart has already passed its version of the NDAA, which will now go to the Senate floor for amendments. The Senate bill would authorize an additional $45 billion in defense spending.

“I’m certain that there will be an amendment offered to increase the defense budget. We’ll see by how much, but it’s not going to be an insignificant amount,” Smith told reporters at a Defense Writers Group breakfast last week.

Smith has argued over the years that more important than the Pentagon’s topline is how the money is spent. “There’s all kinds of concerns about inflation, so we come in and say we’ve got to plus-up the defense budget to buy another, I don’t know, 16-20 F-35s. Well, what’s that got to do with inflation? That’s just buying stuff.”

WHAT’S NOT IN THE SMITH VERSION: There will be many amendments offered to Smith’s version of the annual defense policy bill, but his working first draft leaves out many of the provisions of the version making its way through the Senate.

For instance, it would not authorize development of a nuclear-tipped sea-launched cruise missile, or SLCM-N, a program President Joe Biden wants to kill but U.S. commanders favor as an option to deter Russia and China.

The bill expresses “congressional support for the U.S. defense relationship with Taiwan” and calls for continued supply of arms to Taiwan, but it doesn’t provide any additional funding.

There is also no mention of the controversial proposal included in the Senate bill to require women to register for the draft, a provision that Senate Republicans have vowed to remove from the final bill.

And Smith would remove what he called “arbitrary statutory prohibitions on transfer of detainees” out of the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which Smith argues “hinder progress toward closure” of the facility, which is a goal of Biden. That’s a provision that’s unlikely to make it into the final bill.

The bill would also block the Air Force plan to retire a number of older F-22 Raptors, instead requiring the Air Force to upgrade the planes and maintain “a total aircraft inventory of F–22 aircraft of not less than 186 aircraft.”

HOUSE ARMED SERVICES PANEL HEAD WANTS MORE STRIKE PROTECTIONS FOR CIVILIANS

BY THE NUMBERS: Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the version of the NDAA passed by the Senate Armed Services committee last week, and the version proposed by the House Armed Services Committee Chairman yesterday:

	SASC (passed)	HASC (proposed)
Department of Defense	$817.33 billion	$772.5 billion
Department of Energy	$29.67 billion	$29.5 billion
NDAA topline	$847.04 billion	802.4 billion
Spending not under NDAA	$10.6 billion	$11.0 billion
Total defense spending	$857.64 billion	$813.4 billion

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HAPPENING TODAY: The House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol holds its fourth hearing with testimony from Georgia and Arizona election officials who were pressured to overturn state election results, including Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger; Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Raffensperger’s office; Arizona Republican House Speaker Rusty Bowers; and Wandrea ArShaye “Shaye” Moss, a former election worker from Fulton County, Georgia. 1 p.m. 390 Cannon House Office Building https://january6th.house.gov

The Democrat-controlled hearings are aimed at convincing Americans that President Donald Trump illegally and unconstitutionally sought to overturn the results of the 2020 elections, despite the testimony of his own inner circle, including his hand-picked Attorney General William Barr, that he was told there was no evidence of widespread election fraud on a scale that would change the outcome of the presidential race.

Today’s hearing comes after the Texas Republican Party rejected the election of President Joe Biden as illegitimate, in a preliminary vote.

“We believe that substantial election fraud in key metropolitan areas significantly affected the results in five key states in favor of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.,” the Texas GOP says in its 2022 platform. “We reject the certified results of the 2020 Presidential election, and we hold that acting President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the people of the United States.”

TRUMP ZINGS MCCARTHY FOR ‘FOOLISH DECISION’ TO PULL GOP PICKS FOR JAN. 6 COMMITTEE

KINZINGER: ‘THERE’S VIOLENCE IN THE FUTURE’: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of the two anti-Trump Republicans on the Jan. 6 committee, says he and his family have received death threats from people who don’t believe the overwhelming evidence that Biden won the presidency fair and square.

“There are people that — there’s violence in the future, I’m going to tell you. And until we get a grip on telling people the truth, we can’t expect any differently,” Kinzinger said on ABC Sunday.

“This threat that came in, it was mailed to my house. We got it a couple of days ago, and it threatens to execute me, as well as my wife and 5-month-old child. We’ve never seen or had anything like that. It was sent from the local area,” Kinzinger said. “I don’t worry — but now that I have a wife and kids, of course, it’s a little different.”

“Unfortunately, my party has utterly failed the American people at truth. It makes me sad, but it’s fact,” he said. “If you’re not willing to tell people the truth in America, you shouldn’t run for Congress. Like, go do something else.”

JAN. 6 COMMITTEE PLANNING AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL HEARING: REPORT

ARMING TAIWAN: One of the lessons of the Ukraine war is that Ukraine would be in a much stronger position militarily if the U.S. and its partners had done more to arm Ukraine with state-of-the-art weaponry before Russia invaded.

That is driving bipartisan proposals in Congress to step up the level of military assistance to Taiwan, which faces the looming threat of a Chinese invasion to force unification with the mainland.

At a defense conference in Singapore last week, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe called China Taiwan unification “a great cause of the Chinese nation, and it is a historical trend that no one and no force can stop,” and he vowed, “We will fight at all costs, and we will fight to the very end.”

That’s prompted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to co-sponsor the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 to bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

Specifically, the bill would provide almost $4.5 billion in security assistance over the next four years and designate Taiwan as a “Major Non-NATO Ally.”

“I’m very pleased to be working with Senator Menendez to strengthen the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. Our bill is the largest expansion of the military and economic relationship between our two countries in decades,” said Graham in a statement. “When it comes to Taiwan, our response should be that we are for democracy and against communist aggression.”

At the same time, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) have teamed up to introduce the Taiwan Weapons Exports Act, which is aimed at fast-tracking weapons to Taiwan by expediting licensing approval and cutting in half the time it takes Congress to review arms sales to Taiwan.

“House Republicans can’t let Joe Biden repeat the same mistakes he made in Ukraine,” said Banks in a statement. “You can’t deter an invasion after it happens.”

DEFENDING TAIWAN: The American Enterprise Institute’s Foreign and Defense Policy team is out with a 200-page report — a book really — that is a collection of essays by AEI scholars on the subject of “Defending Taiwan.”

The project was sparked by concern over President Joe Biden’s ambiguous remarks during his recent trip to Asia that the U.S. would be willing “to get involved militarily” to support Taiwan if China invaded.

“Biden that seemed to recast the American policy of ambiguity about Taiwanese independence and, further, state that the US was committed to the defense of Taiwan,” the AEI report says in its forward. “We were concerned, however, that the president appeared not to know the fundamentals of his own administration’s policy, nor did he seem cognizant of his statements’ potential to unsettle the issue in ways that might endanger Taiwan. Moreover, in the aftermath of President Biden’s abandonment of Afghanistan, we worried he was provoking China without being genuinely committed to protecting Taiwan.”

“The chapters in this book have been written to do what the president has not: explain to Americans why the U.S. should care about Taiwan’s sovereignty, what it means for the international order that has made us safe and prosperous if we do not defend the principles on which that order relies, and what it would take to successfully protect Taiwan from Chinese predation.”

The full report should be on the AEI website shortly.

‘MY MONEY IS ON THE UKRAINIANS’: Despite Russia’s superior firepower and its ability to slowly grind out gains in eastern Ukraine, two retired four-star commanders are betting that over the long haul, Ukraine’s resolve will end up wearing down the Russian forces to the point that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be forced to negotiate, if not capitulate.

“My money is on the Ukrainians,” said retired Adm. James Stavirdis, former NATO supreme allied commander, on CNN Sunday. The reason, he said, is motivation. “If you’re on the front lines of the Ukrainian war and you’re a Ukrainian, you look over your shoulder and you see your spouse, your children, your parents, your elders, your civilization, your language. All of that gives great motivators to these troops.”

Stavridis appeared along with former Iraq and Afghanistan commander, retired Gen. David Petraeus on Fareed Zakaria GPS. “This is a grinding, bloody, costly war of attrition right now … it is just artillery, rockets, bombs, missiles,” said Petraeus. “Destroying the defenses, especially if they are in a built-up area, as is the case with Severodonetsk, the current focus of their war machine, and they then do essentially walk in and take over the rubble after they have essentially depopulated it of both people and defenders.”

“I’d put my money on the Ukrainians,” said Petraeus, but he cautioned that a lot depends on the continued flow of Western arms to Ukraine and the continued heavy losses by Russian forces.

“I think they have the possibility of doing this. Having absorbed so much of what the Russians have thrown at them in Severodonetsk and still having not yielded there,” said Petraeus. “The Russians are impaling themselves on that location, consuming enormous quantities of, again, men and materiel,” he said. “The Russians are losing more in a single day, every single day on average, than we lost in all of U.S. and coalition forces in the worst month of the surge in Iraq.”

“I think it will depend on the support from the West most crucially,” said Stavridis. “How does this come out? I want to start with three simple words. I don’t know. Nobody does. War is the most unpredictable of human activities.”

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE SURPASS 10,000: UN

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: House Armed Services panel head wants more strike protections for civilians

Washington Examiner: Top EU diplomat: Russia holding up Ukrainian grain is a ‘real war crime’

Washington Examiner: Civilian casualties in Ukraine surpass 10,000: UN

Washington Examiner: Zelensky: ‘Expect greater hostile activity’ as Ukraine awaits EU membership decision

Washington Examiner: Ukraine bans Russian books and music

Washington Examiner: Captured Americans in Ukraine won’t receive POW protections, Kremlin warns

Washington Examiner: Telegram is ‘not a secure platform,’ NATO-backed strategic comms chief warns

Washington Examiner: China boasts of anti-ballistic missile test to counter US military

Washington Examiner: Senators propose ‘major non-NATO’ alliance with Taiwan to deter China

Washington Examiner: Five British nationals detained in Afghanistan have been released

Washington Examiner: White House denies claims from guns group that ammo ban is under consideration

Washington Examiner: Jan. 6 committee planning at least one additional hearing: Report

New York Times: Weeks Of Battle Leave Moscow Near Square 1

USNI News: U.S., Allies Increase Training Rate For Equipment Earmarked For Ukraine, Says National Security Advisor

Reuters: U.S. Drone Sale To Ukraine Hits Snag

AP: ‘The impossible’: Ukraine’s secret, deadly rescue missions

Bloomberg: B-21 Bomber Delivers Pentagon Surprise: It’s Under Budget So Far

Air Force Magazine: KC-46 Tanker Refuels a CV-22 Tiltrotor for 1st Time

Reuters: U.S. May Let Tajikistan Hold On To Fleeing Afghan Aircraft

Air Force Magazine: Wilsbach Chides China for ‘Nefarious’ Exercise with Russian Bombers

Washington Times: China Conducts New Missile Defense Test Even As U.S. Pushes Ban On Space Tests

USNI News: Chinese, Russian Warships Active Near Japan Ahead of RIMPAC 2022

The Drive: SM-6 Missile Used To Strike Frigate During Massive Sinking Exercise In Pacific

AP: China Says it Successfully Intercepted a Missile in Flight

AP: No nukes? Ukraine-Russian war will shape world’s arsenals

Air Force Magazine: Space ‘Underpins All Instruments of National Power,’ Raymond Says

Military.com: Navy Hands Over Satellite Operations Center to Space Force

Breaking Defense: Navy, Air Force Struggling To Keep Planes Ready For Take Off

19fortyfive.com: Is the F-15EX On the Brink of Being Canceled?

19fortyfive.com: The Ukraine War Proves the U.S. Army Needs New Mobile 155mm Howitzers

19fortyfive.com: Why the Russian Air Force Won’t Fight in Ukraine

Calendar

TUESDAY | JUNE 21

8 a.m. 2401 M St., N.W. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security iDefense Writers Group conversation with Meredith Berger, acting Undersecretary of the Navy/assistant secretary of the Navy for energy, installations, and the environment Email Thom Shanker at tshanker@email.gwu.edu

8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies media conference call briefing, previewing the G7 and NATO summits, with Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe Program; Kathleen McInnis, senior fellow at the CSIS International Security Program; Matthew Goodman, CSIS senior vice president for economics; and Caitlin Welsh, director of the CSIS Global Food Security Program Contact: Andrew Schwartz, 202-775-3242

11 a.m. — Third Way virtual event: “Will China’s Authoritarianism Dominate the Digital World Order?” with Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; former Rep. Mac Thornberry, former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee; Ruth Berry, deputy assistant secretary of state at Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy; Mieke Eoyang; deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy; Richard Fontaine, CEO, Center for a New American Security; Carole House, director of cybersecurity and secure digital Innovation, NSC https://www.thirdway.org/events

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Thinking the Unthinkable Part II: What if Putin Wins in Ukraine?” with David Asher, senior fellow at Hudson; Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow at Hudson; Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2123-virtual-event

12 p.m. — Center for American Progress virtual discussion: “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and democratic backsliding at home and abroad pose threats to the freedom and security of the United States, its allies, and its partners,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://www.americanprogress.org/events

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Al Qaeda: Evergreen Threat or Yesterday’s Fight?” with Tricia Bacon, assistant professor at American University; Daniel Byman, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East Policy; Asfandyar Mir, senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Asia Center; and Adam Weinstein, research fellow at Quincy https://quincyinst.org/event/al-qaeda

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion: “A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times,” with author Mark Esper, former defense secretary https://www.eventbrite.com/e/authors-insights-dr-mark-esper

12 p.m. — National Press Club virtual discussion: “Reporting from Ukraine’s Frontline,” with Christopher Miller, world and national security reporter at Politico; and Tanya Kozyreva, Ukrainian journalist https://www.press.org/events/conversations-correspondents

12:30 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C., virtual discussion: “The Prospects of NATO Enlargement: Turkiye’s Stance on Finland and Sweden’s Membership,” with Luke Coffey, director at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Foreign Policy Studies; Burhanettin Duran, general coordinator at SETA; and Kadir Ustun, executive director at SETA https://setadc.org/events/the-prospects-of-nato-enlargement

1 p.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol hearing, with testimony from Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger; Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Raffensperger’s office; Arizona Republican House Speaker Rusty Bowers; and Wandrea ArShaye “Shaye” Moss, ormer election worker, Fulton County, Georgia. https://january6th.house.gov

3 p.m. 1521 16th Street N.W. — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The Russia-Ukraine War and Global Energy Security,” with Kelly Ogle, CEO at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute; and Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-russia-ukraine-war

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 22

8:30 a.m. 1001 14th Street N.W. — Atlantic Council and the Delegation of the European Union to the U.S. 2022 EU-U.S. Defense and Future Forum, with European Union Ambassador to the U.S. Stavros Lambrinidis; Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman; and Stefano Sannino, secretary-general of the European External Action Service https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2022-eu-us-defense-future-forum/

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee full committee markup of H.R.7900, the FY2023 NDAA http://www.armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. — House Appropriations Committee markup of the FY2023 Defense Appropriations bill; and the FY2023 Legislative Branch Appropriations bill. http://appropriations.house.gov

10 a.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual discussion: “Countering Foreign Information Operations: Developing a Whole of Society Approach to Build Resilience,” with Sen. Angus King, I-Maine; Brad Smith, president of Microsoft; Evelyn Farkas, executive director at the McCain Institute; and Roger Zakheim, director of the Reagan Institute https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/events

10:30 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Future of the U.S. Air Force,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown https://www.hudson.org/events/2119-defense-disruptors-series

10:30 a.m. — Politico online conversation with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the future of European security, and NATO’s upcoming summit in Madrid. Livestreamed on https://www.nato.int

11 a.m. — Foreign Press Association webinar: “Ukraine on Fire,” with Sergej Schummel, Russian journalist and media observer about the “Kremlin’s cartoon strip preparation for the War in Ukraine” https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — American Bar Association virtual discussion: “The Russian Invasion of Ukraine — Status Update,” retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rachel VanLandingham, professor of law at Southwestern Law School; former CIA executive Jack Devine, founding partner and president at the Arkin Group LLC; former CIA executive Milton Bearden, chairman at Lone Star REElements LLC; Jonathan Ward of the Atlas Organization; and Barbara Linney, partner at BakerHolstetler https://americanbar.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the American Conservative virtual discussion: “The New Right: Ukraine Marks Major Foreign Policy Shift Among Conservatives,” with Mollie Ziegler Hemingway, senior editor at the Federalist; Emile Doak, executive director of the American Ideas Institute; Saurabh Sharma, president of the American Moment; George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Beaucare Vlahos, senior adviser at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/the-new-right-ukraine

12:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion with Michael Brown, director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event

2:45 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “NATO Enlargement: Examining the Proposed Accession of Sweden and Finland,” with testimony from Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried; and Assistant Defense Secretary of for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander http://foreign.senate.gov

MONDAY | JUNE 27

7 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters ahead of the Madrid Leaders Summit https://www.nato.int

TUESDAY | JUNE 28

9:30 a.m. — Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, with an opening speech from Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies hybrid event: “National Security and Artificial Intelligence: Global Trends and Challenges,” with Paul “PJ” Maykish, senior director of research and analysis for future technology platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project; David Spirk, former DOD chief data officer; Neil Serebryany, CEO of CalypsoAI; Margaret Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer, Department of Defense; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/national-security-and-artificial-intelligence

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 29

2 a.m. — Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, followed by an opening ceremony at 4 a.m., and an end of day briefing by Stoltenberg at 7:45 a.m. (All times eastern). https://www.nato.int

10 a.m. — House Appropriations Committee markup of the FY2023 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations bill http://appropriations.house.gov

THURSDAY | JUNE 30 

6:15 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference at the conclusion of the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain. https://www.nato.int